Point # 7 Negative Feedback Loops

Now we are beginning to move from the physical part of the system (Materials Stock and Flow in terms of Atmospheric CO2 concentration in ppm) to the information and control parts (global warming), where more leverage can be found. Climate Change is a feedback loop.  Feedback loops come in two flavors: positive and negative. A negative feedback loop reduces the effect of change and helps maintain balance. A positive feedback loop increases the effect of the change and produces instability. In this case, the positive and negative naming of the loops do not indicate whether the feedback is good or bad. In climate change, a feedback loop is something that speeds up or slows down a warming trend. A positive feedback accelerates a temperature rise, whereas a negative feedback slows it down.

Nature evolves negative feedback loops and humans invent them to keep system states within safe bounds. A thermostat loop is the classic example of a negative feedback loop. Its purpose is to keep the system state called "room temperature" constant at a desired level.  Any negative feedback loop needs a goal (the thermostat setting), a monitoring and signaling device to detect excursions from the goal (the thermostat), and a response mechanism (the furnace and/or air conditioner, fans, heat pipes, fuel, etc.). A complex system usually has numerous negative feedback loops it can bring into play, so it can self-correct under different conditions and impacts. Some of those loops may be inactive much of the time—like the emergency cooling system in a nuclear power plant, or your ability to sweat or shiver to maintain your body temperature. One of the big mistakes we make is to strip away these emergency response mechanisms because they are not often used or have been too costly. In the short term we see no effect from doing this. In the long term, we narrow the range of conditions over which the system can survive. The "strength" of a negative loop—its ability to keep its appointed stock at or near its goal—depends on the combination of all its parameters and links—the accuracy and rapidity of monitoring, the quickness and power of response, the directness and size of corrective flows.

A case in point is global warming. We have developed a way to measure global warming in a consistent and accurate way – there is a global consensus that we need to keep global warming of the earth temperature below 1.5 degrees Celsius to avoid negative effects of global warming. That is a negative feedback loop. Yet the quickness and power of response is one of our biggest weaknesses, because this emergency response mechanisms of cooling the earth, by slowing down our burning of fossil fuels, or the rate of growth, is often very difficult to achieve and appears to be too costly and painful for us right now. The slower we respond to global warming the less options that we have going forward. Irrespective of the improvements in energy efficiencies and reductions in CO2 emissions in advanced economies over the past decades, we still are increasing the Atmospheric Concentration of CO2 in ppm.

We struggle to reduce CO2 emissions globally because the options are getting out of our hands, with the acceleration of the global warming impacts in terms of more frequent sever weather such as floods, hurricanes, and drought. The effects of climate change are more severe than the impact of road transport in China and global aviation combined. So, we are in a reverse negative feedback look, the weaknesses create a stronger response on Earth to climate change.

Right now, the negative feedback loop is weakened by the brainwashing power of tech companies, sustainability branding, greenwashing, and the big industry calls for the power of big governments to intervene and create a global government to protect the globalization. This is evident in the United Nations taking the lead in creating the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) and the industry signing up to those goals. These goals are cited in most of the sustainability reports of the SDG2000 global companies that are responsible for more than 50% of the Global GDP. Yet the embarrassing reality is that according to the World Benchmark Alliance, the world is far off track to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and is failing on their defining principle to ‘leave no one behind.’ Across most of the SDGs, which cover intersecting environmental and social issues, global progress is slow and, in some cases, even moving in the wrong direction. Companies play a critical role in achieving the 2030 Agenda, but widespread corporate support has not translated into the real, SDG-aligned action that is needed to put progress back on track.

Good examples of strengthening negative feedback controls to improve system’s self-correcting abilities, preventative medicine, exercise, and good nutrition to bolster the body’s ability to fight disease. The Freedom of Information Act reduces government secrecy, protection for whistle blowers, impact fees, pollution taxes, and performance bonds that capture externalized public costs of private benefits. SDGs governance is lacking a strong negative feedback loop. A lot of companies are reverting on their previous commitments to these SDGs or declining to make a commitment in the first place. Instituting Taskforce on Climate Risk Financial Disclosures on all SDG2000 and having impact fees, performance bonds that shoestring SDG progress would enforce this negative feedback loop.